Hurricane Isabel tore up my dock. Hurricane Ike led us on a chase across the Gulf coast. Now Hurricane Irene is doing the same up the East coast. These crazy “I” storms.
I trust the professionals at the National Hurricane Center. While I do look at the model predictions and make my guesses, it is just me gaming the system. I don’t know what the models represent or which ones are more accurate. So I just rely on the NHC predictions. That said, Emergency Management needs to be prepared for these storms even if they’re not in the path. It’s a sad no-win situation for most EMs. If they prepared and it doesn’t hit, they’re tagged for wasting money. If they don’t prepare and it does hit; they’re tagged as incompetent. The sweet spot in the middle is very small.
Attached is a slide deck that I use in class to expose students to the changing path of Hurricane Ike. Nothing beats real life examples.